CONDITIONS SET BY PUTIN FOR DE-ESCALATION

Three Conditions

  1. Resolve Ukraine NATO question. Western assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO anytime soon are not good enough.
  2. Ready for talks with the US and NATO on limits for missile deployments and military transparency.
  3. Resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine through the Minsk process.

In addition

OFF RAMP DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS TO PRESIDENT PUTIN

Diplomats talk of an "off ramp", a way that all sides can get off the road to war. But finding such a path is not easy. Any compromise would come at a price. Here, though, are some potential routes that do not involve a military and thus bloody outcome.

RUSSIAN DONBASS DOCTRINE

Relevance of Doctrine formation

ONE OCEAN SUMMIT

From 8 thru 11 February, France will hold a 'One Planet' Summit dedicated to the Ocean in Brest, Britany. The Summit aims to mobilize the international community and take concrete action to reduce adverse effects on the ocean, raising its level of ambition on maritime issues. The Summit will include events aimed at generating solutions  followed by a high-level segment on 11 February with Heads of State and Government and leaders of international organizations, local authorities, civil society, business, and finance. 

Topics

THE MINSK DISAGREEMENTS

The key obstacle to disengagement in Donbas, and to a sustainable ceasefire more broadly, is that no side has faith that an acceptable political settlement will follow. Conflicting views of the Minsk agreements are at the heart of the impasse.

A.The View from Moscow

RUSSIAN DRAFT OF A EUROPEAN SECURITY TREATY IN 2009

On June 5, 2008, the President of Russia put forward an initiative to develop a new pan-European security treaty, the main idea of which was to create – in the context of military and political security in the Euro-Atlantic region – a common undivided space in order to finally do away with the Cold War legacy.

RUSSIA’S DEMANDS FOR LEGALLY BINDING SECURITY GUARANTEES

It is useful to shed some light on the underlying points which drive Russia’s deep concerns. Moscow holds that the USSR was deceived on the issue of NATO expansion. At the same time, it is recognised that it was the fault of the Soviet leadership not to acquire legally binding guarantees at that time and the fault of the Russian leadership in the 1990s not to prevent NATO expansion per se. The current acrimony is caused by numerous examples of Western leaders making promises, blurred or straightforward, not to expand NATO further.

POSSIBLE CONCESSIONS TO RUSSIA

Agreements with Russia are theoretically possible on two key issues: non-expansion and non-deployment. But any such agreements will be of a political, not legally binding nature.

FRENCH AND GERMAN APPROACHES TO RUSSIA

France and Germany have different but potentially complementary agendas with regard to Russia. While Paris is more interested in security-related questions, Berlin has focused more strongly on the realms of business and energy. However, German concerns about issues of European security are growing, and there is overlap in the problems facing economic actors from both countries in the Russian context.

UKRAINE FOREIGN POLICY

Among international partners, Poland seems to reign in popularity sweepstakes, with the largest number of Ukrainians favouring partnership with it and Polish President Andrzej Duda topping the list of foreign leaders most trusted by Ukrainians.

Ukrainians have a demand for regional alliances with Ukraine’s participation, so Ukrainian diplomacy should continue this trend.

Ukrainians have lauded the development of

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